29 Jul 2022by
Gary Noakes
School’s finally out for summer, unleashing pent-up demand the industry could only have dreamt of 12 months ago. Or so’s the theory. Are families heading off for a carefree fortnight after two years of being grounded, or are airport queues and flight cancellations putting them off?
The run-up to peak summer seemed to augur well, with Jet2holidays particularly optimistic. In early July, it trumpeted summer 2022 capacity 14% higher than that of 2019, signalling it was at last able to take advantage of the gap left by the collapse of Thomas Cook. Such was its optimism, Jet2holidays’ Atol was increased from 3.8 million to 4.6 million.
However, in the same breath, Jet2 chair Philip Meeson blasted the UK’s “woefully ill-prepared” airports, while noting Jet2 has its own airline and, in most UK airports, its own check-in and ground handling staff – a distinct advantage in the current climate.
July’s slot amnesty, which allowed airlines to hand back take-off and landing slots without losing them, gave carriers with staffing issues scope to slash capacity they could not operate. This gave consumers more certainty, only for Heathrow to then ask airlines not to sell any more summer flights because it could not cope.
All of this put an untimely brake on what should have been a bumper summer, and will affect late sales because of consumer wariness and limited capacity – meaning higher prices.
ForwardKeys, which monitors flight sales data, found bookings from London airports peaked at 60% above 2019 levels in mid-April this year but have declined since, with a sharp downturn from the last week of May as images of airport queues became more frequent. Flight sales for departures from London’s airports to Europe in the week to 10 July were down 41% on the same period in 2019.
Olivier Ponti, ForwardKeys’ vice-president insights, said: “At the end of May, it seemed we would see an exceptional summer for travel within Europe; but now it is more likely to be just a good one.”
Those on the frontline know this all too well. Typically Holidays managing director Daniele Broccoli told TTG his team had coped with “huge” disruption and seen enquiries fall. “It slowed down for everybody the day they showed the suitcases piling up at Heathrow,” he said.
“People are scared, but 98% of flights are still departing. “It was easier during Covid – you knew where you stood; if clients couldn’t go, you changed the date, gave a refund or a credit note. Now, airlines are still cancelling, but late at night for the next day, which is a joke.”
’One extreme or the other’
Broccoli has stopped selling Luton and Bristol departures this summer. “I can’t face ringing a client at 3am and telling them I don’t have an alternative. If it’s Gatwick, I can find something. I’d rather lose the booking until the airlines sort it out.”
There are also concerns over flight prices, which in some cases means only those with deep pockets may be tempted away in August.
A brief search in early July for seat-only departures a month later found Tui fares from Gatwick to Dalaman nudging four figures, with a Bournemouth-Crete fare at £765pp and a Manchester- Corfu at £432. Heathrow-Faro with British Airways was well over £700 and Newcastle-Malaga with Jet2.com around £300.
“It’s one extreme or the other,” Broccoli added. “Seats are either very expensive, as if they want to put you off booking, or very cheap.”
Advantage is hopeful a good summer holiday experience will tempt families to book for October half-term too
Inflated seat rates suggests carriers with tour operating brands are guarding flights for their own purposes, meaning seat-only fares are much higher than usual. Tui declined to comment on the situation when approached by TTG, but David Child, Thomas Cook brand and PR director, said: “Capacity is being kept in-house, however there’s good availability in hotels.”
Child said July had been Cook’s biggest-selling month. “Our second-biggest is September but August is much lower. We’re buying flights at single-fare market prices and August looks quite expensive. I think that’s why we’re selling less [than in July].”
’Bumper year’
Advantage chief commercial officer Kelly Cookes added: “Capacity and pricing are starting to become more of a challenge in some areas.” However, she said almost half of all current sales were for summer 2022.
As the season continues, the worry is bad airport experiences will hit bookings for later in 2022. “If families have had a good holiday, they will be tempted back for October half-term,” said Child. “We’re hoping the next two months will go well for customers.”
Broccoli is more blunt. “The airlines need to sort themselves out. It should be a bumper year.”
Summer 2022 started with such promise, but there were inevitably going to be issues when the industry remobilised after Covid. Things may not be as good as they could be, but for any agent or operator feeling despondent, just think back 12 months – it could be a lot worse.
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