National Weather Service (2024)

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --517FXUS61 KGYX 080038AFDGYXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Gray ME838 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024.SYNOPSIS...An upper low moving overhead will bring chances of showers andfew thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow, especially during theafternoon hours. Somewhat unsettled weather remains possibleinto midweek.&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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830 PM...Quick update mostly for POPS tonight. Other than a fewisolated lightning strike through about 10 PM, think we are donewith thunder. Otherwise should see W wind start to move in aftermidnight. which will clear out some ares away from the coast,but think we will need the help of some daylight clear rout thecoast, but it should happen quickly in the morning.Impacts:* No significant weather impacts expectedWhat remains of the line of showers from overnight has clearedour CWA and, as expected, in its wake some convective cells havedeveloped. With poor lapse rates across the area they actuallyhaven`t produced much lightning. As we head into the eveninglapse rates slightly steepen as the upper low begins to moveoverhead, however that remain less than ideal at 5-6 C/km. Anyupdrafts that are able to sustain themselves do have 60-65 ktsof shear to work with so can`t rule out a stronger storm, butconfidence is high that they will stay sub-severe. The bestchance for a stronger storm looks to be along the New Hampshire-Maine border where easterly flow is converging with westerlyflow. As the upper level low continues to move overhead tonight,an associated shortwave trough will sustain showers mainlynorth of the mountains. With PWATs still up around an inch therewill likely be some embedded heavy rain. So far storms havebeen moving right along through that area, but as we get closerto the pivot point of the trough storm motion slows a little.Flash Flood Guidance in this area is still 1.5"-2" per hourwhich is at the maximum end of what ensembles have for rates.Mean rates are around half an inch per hour and model soundingsshow warm cloud depths only around 6 kft, therefore not seeingpotential for flash flooding. That being said these areas didsee a decent amount of rain during recent events, so heavierrain and slower storm motion may still lead to some minornuisance type flooding, but nothing substantial. Aforementionedwesterly flow should dry things out tonight so not expectingmuch fog, with the exception of the Midcoast where proximity tothe center of surface low pressure will keep flow onshorethrough tonight. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper50s along the coast and through the interior, with lower 50snorth of the mountains.
-- End Changed Discussion --&&.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...Showers will continue through the morning as the upper levellow continues to move overhead. This will also steepen lapserates with the latest CAMs showing more toward 7 C/km, but thereis going to be much less shear. Similar to today, developmentof storms looks like it will be highly dependent on areasbreaking into the sunshine so they will still be quitescattered. Contrary to today, the coast has a much better chanceof seeing showers and a storm Saturday as that is the area thatis the most likely to see mostly sunny skies. With marginalconvective parameters, wouldn`t expect anything severe but astronger storm with some gusty winds cant be ruled out. At thevery least models still have PWATs near an inch, so a downpouris more likely. Areas south of the mountains will see highs inthe 70s and areas to north, that will likely stay mostly cloudy,will only reach the upper 60s.A few showers may linger into Saturday night, but for amajority of the area it will be a dry night as the upper lowfinally departs and some weak ridging builds in. Skies clearsome overnight, but will begin to thicken again heading towardSunday morning as the next trough approaches. Low temperatureswill be similar to tonight; mid to upper 50s south of themountains and lower 50s to the north.&&.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...The overall pattern across the northeast in the extended willcontinue to consist of moist cyclonic flow due to upper levellow pressure lingering across the northeast US and southeastCanada. This will lead to unsettled weather at times. But atthis time it does not look like there will be any washouts, justmainly chancy to low likely PoPs for showers and thunderstorms,peaking in the afternoons with diurnal heating. This will bemainly true Sunday through Monday before a period of ridgingpossibly moves in. Highest PoPs each day are in the mountains,with lesser PoPs in southern NH where it could be dry most ofthe time. Midweek looks drier but there will still be the threatfor diurnal showers.Temperatures each day will be in the 70s for most folks, with60s in the mountains.&&.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Short Term...Some IFR restrictions are likely at coastalterminals and AUG again tonight, but elsewhere ceilings shouldbe MVFR/VFR in rain showers and a few thunderstorms. Once anylow ceilings lift and fog dissipates, Saturday should be mainlyVFR with another chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.Fog is not expected Saturday night.Long Term...Local IFR to MVFR conditions possible Sunday morningat coastal terminals. Otherwise, local MVFR conditions inshowers and isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and againMonday afternoon. Some nighttime fog possible, especially whereit rained the previous daytime.&&.MARINE...Short Term...Conditions hazardous to small craft are notexpected through Saturday night. Some dense fog is likely againtonight, mainly off the Midcoast. Seas will be 3- 4ft with somebreezy westerly wind gusts approaching 20 kts Saturday.Long Term...Conditions hazardous to small craft are notexpected through Tuesday. However, there could be areas of lowvisibilities in fog.&&.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...ME...None.NH...None.MARINE...None.&&$$SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...Baron/CempaSHORT TERM...Baron/SchroeterLONG TERM...EksterAVIATION...MARINE...